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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.