How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned talks on the almost four-year war in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's attempts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia done," he said.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in August produced no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.

The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Paul Miller
Paul Miller

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