‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Kitchen Fuel Availability.
The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's homes.
As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep their operations going."
Localized Effects
In Mumbai, accounts say up to a significant portion of eateries are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their fuel reserves have depleted with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."
Retailers observe a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Government Stance
Yet, the government insists there is sufficient stock.
India has more than a vast number of household consumers and spokespersons say stocks are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.
About six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the hostilities.
The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being reserved for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Some panic booking and accumulation has been triggered by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for domestic LPG remains about under three days," says a senior official.
Widening Concern
Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the caption reads.
According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.
India imports almost all of its oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the deficit could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.
Based on shipping data and credible market sources, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.
"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The key weakness is cooking gas, analysts say.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the chokepoint.
Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of stockpiling.
An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.
"Distributors are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
